Current Event Read
Next 7 days
64event pressure
The calendar deserves attention. It does not automatically block risk, but it makes size, liquidity, and IV quality more important.
48-Hour Pre-Trade Check
Seller Event Risk
Check CPI, FOMC, earnings,and other event windowsbefore selling premium.
Official Macro Calendar
CPI and FOMCare the first two lights.
CPIPlannedSource pendingPlanned
FOMCPlannedSource pendingPlanned
48-Hour Rule
The closer the event,the more premium is risk compensation.
0-48 hoursCheck
Treat premium as event premium. Size should be smaller, spreads should be clean, and waiting may be the higher-quality choice.
2-10 daysCheck
The event is not on top of the trade yet, but it can still shape IV, liquidity, and dealer positioning.
After the eventCheck
Premium may be smaller, but the information set is cleaner. Lower premium after the event can be better premium.
Unknown company eventCheck
Earnings, FDA dates, product launches, court decisions, and lockups still need a separate company-calendar check.
Signals To Wait
When is patience worth more than income?
- The next CPI, FOMC, jobs report, or earnings date sits inside the holding window.
- IV is elevated mainly because the market is waiting for one binary answer.
- Bid-ask spreads widen while the premium looks attractive.
- The planned size would feel uncomfortable if the market gaps through the short strike.
- Liquidity, credit, or breadth is already confirming stress.
Cleaner Signals
When does premium look more like compensation?
- The known event has passed and the market has already repriced the information.
- IV remains useful without relying on one binary outcome.
- Spreads are tight enough that entry and exit are both realistic.
- Position size survives a gap, assignment, and several days of bad mood.
- Liquidity and credit are not arguing against the trade.
Follow The Answer
The note asks the question; the answer lives across the cockpit and library.
Source Ledger