Current Event Read
This week
64event pressure
The calendar deserves attention. Size, liquidity, and IV quality need a tighter check.
Weekly Macro Timing Risk
Seller Event Risk
Check inflation, Fed, jobs, growth,and OPEX windows beforeselling premium.
Full Weekly Calendar
The cockpit shows the top few;this page expands the full week.
CPIPlannedSource pendingPlanned
PCEPlannedSource pendingPlanned
FOMCPlannedSource pendingPlanned
Retail SalesPlannedSource pendingPlanned
Weekly Timing Window
The closer the event,the more premium is risk compensation.
This weekCheck
Treat premium as timing-risk compensation. Size should be smaller, spreads should be clean, and waiting may be the higher-quality choice.
Event dayCheck
Gap risk and repricing can matter more than the headline premium. Entry, exit, and spread width deserve a stricter check.
After the eventCheck
Premium may be smaller, but the information set is cleaner. Lower premium after the release can still be higher-quality premium.
Company eventsCheck
Company-specific events are not part of this macro calendar. Earnings, FDA dates, court decisions, and lockups still need a separate check.
Signals To Wait
When is patience worth more than income?
- The next CPI, PCE, FOMC, jobs report, GDP release, or OPEX date sits inside the holding window.
- IV is elevated mainly because the market is waiting for one binary answer.
- Bid-ask spreads widen while the premium looks attractive.
- The planned size would feel uncomfortable if the market gaps through the short strike.
- Liquidity, credit, or breadth is already confirming stress.
Cleaner Signals
When does premium look more like compensation?
- The known event has passed and the market has already repriced the information.
- IV remains useful without relying on one binary outcome.
- Spreads are tight enough that entry and exit are both realistic.
- Position size survives a gap, assignment, and several days of bad mood.
- Liquidity and credit are not arguing against the trade.
Follow The Answer
The note asks the question; the answer lives across the cockpit and library.
Source Ledger