Strategy Hub

Event Risk Hub

Before CPI, FOMC, earnings, Fed speeches, or OPEX, premium is not just income. It is payment for carrying a window.

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Who it helps

Start by knowing whether this page is for you.

Put sellers before macro data

Use it before inflation, Fed, labor, or growth data can reset the whole tape.

Covered call sellers near earnings

Earnings can make call premium richer while making the upside cap more expensive.

Short-premium traders around OPEX

Expiration mechanics can change liquidity, dealer hedging, and intraday movement.

Core risks

The real risk is not just the premium.

Gap risk

A known event can move price faster than a seller can adjust.

IV crush

IV can fall after the event, but the price move may still dominate the result.

Cross-market reset

CPI and FOMC can reset rates, dollar, equities, credit, and volatility together.

Liquidity thinning

Around major windows, spreads can widen and exits can become less polite.

Checklist

Use these questions before opening risk.

  1. Which event is inside the option window: CPI, FOMC, jobs, earnings, Fed speech, or OPEX?
  2. Is premium high enough because IV is rich, or only because the event is dangerous?
  3. If the first move is against me, can the account still hold the position without forcing a bad exit?
  4. Would waiting until after the event produce a cleaner read, even if premium is smaller?
  5. Is this single-stock risk, index risk, rates risk, or all of them at once?
  6. Is liquidity likely to be normal when I need to adjust?

Decision path

The order matters more than any single signal.

1. Name the event

A seller should know exactly which window is being carried.

2. Price the window

Premium must be judged against the size and reach of the event.

3. Reduce false comfort

A rich option can still be poor quality if liquidity, gap, or assignment risk is ugly.

4. Decide whether waiting is cleaner

Sometimes the best seller decision is to let the event pass first.

Research and education

Miss Lemon frames options-seller risk. It does not name strikes, contracts, or trades.